— At this point, Hezbollah must urgently rebuild its internal communications, reassess the security of its leadership, and reconsider its approach to asymmetric warfare.
— The organization’s ability to maneuver is shrinking due to intelligence leaks from within, feeding Israel critical information. While Ali Karaki may not be dead, he is now a marked and vulnerable target.
— Hezbollah’s decision to bunker the entire Jihad Council reflects a troubling willingness to prioritize the organization’s survival over its strategic awareness. This “blinding” of leadership for the sake of self-preservation raises serious concerns.
— Israel’s operational gains, along with the fear it has instilled, will have political ramifications for Hezbollah in the medium term, particularly within Lebanon.
— As a result, Nasrallah and his inner circle will enter this phase significantly weakened. Their traditional anti-Israel rhetoric is losing its potency, and it will no longer convince a disillusioned public.
In an official announcement, Hezbollah hints at turning the campaign from identification with the Palestinian people in Gaza, to the defense of the people of Lebanon.
— However, Iran has so far refrained from launching an attack, with Iranian officials telling their Hezbollah counterparts that “the timing isn’t right” because the Iranian president is currently in New York for the UN General Assembly.
— Israel and the U.S. are concerned that if Iran does retaliate for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran two months ago, it could conduct another missile and drone attack against Israel.
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